Author's Note: The headline says "better than expected." That is technically true. But when "expectations" were set by a 51% collapse the prior year, clearing the bar doesn't mean you've won the gold. It just means you didn't trip over it.

February 12, 2026: Ubisoft released Q3 FY2025-26 sales figures. The headline numbers look like a recovery. The full financial picture looks like a company still fighting for its life.

The Numbers

Q3 FY2025-26 (Oct-Dec 2025):

  • Net bookings: €337.7 million, up 11.9% year-on-year
  • Digital net bookings: €255.8 million (76% of total)
  • Result: Above revised expectation of ~€330 million

First nine months FY2025-26 (Apr-Dec 2025):

  • Net bookings: €1.11 billion (+17.6% YoY)
  • Digital net bookings: €941.7 million (84.8% of total)
  • Back-catalog: €1.04 billion (+36.2%)

Full-year FY2026 guidance (confirmed):

  • Net bookings: ~€1.5 billion
  • Non-IFRS EBIT: -€1 billion
  • Free cash flow: -€400 to -€500 million
  • Cash position end March 2026: €1.25-1.35 billion

One structural shift worth flagging: PC jumped from 26% of bookings last year to 41% this year. Console dropped from 54% to 45%. I've been tracking this migration for three quarters now, but I didn't expect the dam to break this fast. That's a massive platform shift in twelve months, likely driven by Assassin's Creed Shadows performance and strategic partnerships.

What Performed

Assassin's Creed: The franchise is carrying the company. Session Days are up 28% year-on-year. The report explicitly calls it "overperformance." Without this, the quarter misses.

Anno 117: Pax Romana: Released in Q3 to an 84 Metacritic. Net bookings are outpacing Anno 1800 on a comparable timeframe. It's a quiet, stable hit in a portfolio that desperately needed one.

Rainbow Six Siege: Year 10 and still growing. December MAUs were up year-on-year. Daily Active Users in early January were double what they were in November. It remains the infinite money printer.

What The Report Doesn't Celebrate

The FY2026 full-year guidance is the part worth sitting with.

Net bookings of ~€1.5 billion with -€1 billion non-IFRS EBIT means Ubisoft is spending roughly €2.5 billion to generate €1.5 billion in bookings. That's before burning another €400-500 million in free cash flow.

For context on the "recovery":

  • FY2023-24 bookings: €2.32 billion
  • FY2024-25 bookings: €1.85 billion
  • FY2026 guidance: €1.5 billion

The trajectory is still downward. The rate of decline has slowed, but the direction hasn't changed.

The Debt Elephant

The report states the cash position is "fully available to service debt maturities" and that the Group is "actively exploring several options to extend its debt maturity."

"Actively exploring options to extend debt maturity" is corporate speak for "We can't pay this off comfortably right now." Look, companies with healthy balance sheets don't usually need to announce they are exploring ways to kick the can down the road. They just pay it.

The Transformation Context

This report lands three weeks after Ubisoft cancelled six games and announced studio closures. It covers the same period (Oct-Dec 2025) as the covenant breach disclosure and the €1.16 billion Tencent investment.

The Q3 numbers improved because Assassin's Creed worked. The structural problems that required a billion-euro bailout to avoid default didn't vanish because one quarter beat a lowered bar.

Reported progress:

  • Five Creative Houses operating model announced
  • "Consultations to reduce headcount at Ubisoft HQ France by 200" initiated
  • Tencent investment in Vantage Studios completed (€1.16B)
  • New Chief Communications Officer appointed (Valentine Piedelievre-Eman)

"Consultations to reduce headcount by 200" is the polite way of saying 200 more people at the Paris headquarters are losing their jobs.

The Q3 Comparison Reality Check

Ubisoft is celebrating "up 12% year-on-year." Let's look at what they're comparing against.

Q3 FY2024-25 was a catastrophe. Net bookings were €301.8 million, down 51.8% from the prior year. That was the quarter cratered by Star Wars Outlaws underperformance and the Shadows delay.

So yes, €337M is better than €301M. But it's still miles below the €626M of Q3 FY2023-24. Recovering 12% after dropping 52% isn't growth. It's a dead cat bounce.

My Assessment

Insider Gaming called this "smooth sailing." That's... generous.

Net bookings beat expectations. True. Assassin's Creed is performing. True. But reporting Ubisoft as "in a strong place" while burying the -€1 billion EBIT guidance is like saying a surgery went well while omitting the patient is still in the ICU.

Here's what "above expectations" actually means: Ubisoft beat guidance that was set after a catastrophic 51% collapse. Low expectations are easy to clear.

"Actively exploring options to extend debt maturity" is the only sentence in this report that matters. Everything else is window dressing. A company generating -€1 billion EBIT while burning €500M cash doesn't get to call itself "healthy" just because it sold a few more digital copies of Assassin's Creed than predicted.

If that.

The balance sheet strength is artificial. It was achieved via an emergency €1.16 billion investment from Tencent to plug a hole caused by a covenant breach. Organic strength doesn't require emergency liquidity injections. Bailouts do.

Also, the stock dropped 2.38% on this "beat." Markets can read. They see a company shrinking revenue for the third straight year (-20%, then -19%) while restructuring, firing staff, and asking lenders for more time.

Rainbow Six Mobile releases February 23 with 18 million pre-registrations. That's the wildcard. If it converts, it could actually diversify revenue. If it flops—and mobile is brutal—Q4 gets very dark, very fast.

The "transformation" might work. Restructuring sometimes does (and organizational restructuring often acts as a useful fog of war for layoffs). But the question isn't whether the plan is good. It's whether Ubisoft has enough runway to execute it before the debt maturities stop being something they can "explore options" for and start being something they have to pay.

Sources: Ubisoft Q3 FY2025-26 press release (Feb 12 2026), Ubisoft Q3 FY2024-25 press release, Investing.com earnings call transcript, proprietary GameHazards reporting on H1 FY26 covenant breach.